Meteorological inefficiency in India : The Reason

I am going to put forth an argument for Indian Meteorological Department and it’s efficiency. In recent time (June 2015) there has been a flip flop over the forecast of Indian Meteorological Department (here in after IMD) for monsoon. They said that monsoon will remain week and then after few days they put forth an strong monsoon expectation.

Over this flip flop Indian intelligentsia have questioned the competency, capability and capacity of IMD. But I would like to say that Indian's never make mistakes when they calculate. Tropical climate like India is highly unpredictable because it is thermally induced climate which changes very swiftly. Western countries are very efficient in making forecast because their climate is dynamically induced. Dynamically induced climate is relatively slow and easily predictable.

Indian Climate is very complex in comparison to any other tropical climate, because various climatic phenomenon affects the Indian climate such as Western Pacific Pool, Walker cycle. These are not yet completely understood by anyone in the world. For example ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) has a drying effect over India and weakens the Indian monsoon, it has not been possible to understand why southern Oscillation takes place in Western Pacific Pool. Walker cycles represent the horizontal movement of air between pressure gradient. It is largely yet to be discovered only few are known.

It was 1973, when IMD discovers the role of Tibetan Plateau in the Indian monsoon, before 1973 all the forecasts were made without taking the role of plateau in consideration. Therefore it was proved to be inefficient.

America, Europe make exact prediction not because of technological superiority but because of their geographical advantages. Indian Monsoon is the most complex in the world if we think for this perspective we will find that whatever IMD does is very great and worth appraisal.

In order to make IMD more efficient government must propose greater outlay for meteorological research so these unsolved puzzles could be solved, then and only then IMD could reach the exceptional efficiency.

My Verdict : Meteorological inefficiency is not because of competence and capacity of IMD but it is because of Geographical reasons. Tropical weather makes everything tough.